Journal of Monetary Economics, 151, 103729.
First draft: May, 2018
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1341 (Federal Reserve Board)
"Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World" (2024) with Matteo Luciani and Michele Modugno
Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, edited by Mike Clements and Ana Galvão
First draft: December, 2023
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1385 (Federal Reserve Board)
"Back to the present: learning about the euro area through a now-casting model" (2024) with Thiago Ferreira, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno
International Journal of Forecasting, 40(2), 661-686.
First draft: March, 2021
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1313 (Federal Reserve Board)
Now-casting the Euro Area GDP - Weekly updates
"What is certain about uncertainty?" (2023) with Cisil Sarisoy, Juan M. Londono, Bo Sun, Deepa D. Datta, Thiago Ferreira, Olesya Grishchenko, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Francesca Loria, Sai Ma, Marius Rodriguez, Ilknur Zer, and John Rogers
Journal of Economic Literature, 61(2), 624-54.
First draft: July, 2020
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1294 (Federal Reserve Board), SSRN
Coverage: Vice-Chair Jefferson's speech at the Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility conference
"Patent-based news shocks" (2022) with Marija Vukotić
Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(1), 51-66.
First draft: May, 2019
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1277 (Federal Reserve Board), Warwick Economics Research Paper # 1225
Online appendix, Replication codes
Patent-based news shock and patent series here!
Coverage: Economics Observatory
"News and uncertainty shocks" (2021) with Ana Galvão
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 53(4): 779-811.
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1240 (Federal Reserve Board)
American Economic Review, 107(10): 3243-49.
"Innovation during challenging times: patent-based innovation shocks and business cycle dynamics" with Marija Vukotić and Sarah Zubairy (new version!)
This version: January, 2025
First draft: March, 2023
"Pandemic priors" (new version!)
This version: February, 2024
First draft: June, 2022
MATLAB, Julia, Python, and R implementation
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1352 (Federal Reserve Board)
Coverage: EViews blog
"What happens in China does not stay in China" with William L. Barcelona, Jasper J. Hoek, and Eva Van Leemput
This version: January, 2025
First draft: December, 2020
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1360 (Federal Reserve Board)
Previously circulated as "Hidden in plain sight: China's contribution to the global business and financial cycle"
Coverage: The Economist, Hutchins Roundup (Brookings), Adam Tooze's Chartbook, Esprits Animaux, Rhodium Group, VoxEU
Data (credit impulse and alternative GDP level)
"Understanding growth-at-risk: a markov-switching approach" with Dario Caldara, Pablo Cuba-Borda, and Francesca Loria
This version: January, 2021
First draft: October, 2020
This version: July, 2020
First draft: November, 2017 - Job Market Paper
Uncertainty data here!
Gerald P. Dwyer prize for the best paper in finance presented by a graduate student at the 26th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2018)
FEDS Notes
This version: July, 2024
Coverage: American Enterprise Institute (1), American Enterprise Institute (2), Central Banking
"Lessons from the Co-movement of Inflation around the World" (2024) with Luca Guerrieri, Matteo Iacoviello, and Michele Modugno
FEDS Notes
This version: June, 2024
Coverage: Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, Governor Cook's speech at ACE, Governor Kugler's speech at the ECB, Governor Waller at the OECD
"Drivers of Post-pandemic Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies and Implications for the Outlook" (2023) with Musa Orak and Zina Saijid
FEDS Notes
This version: January, 2023
Coverage: Governor Kugler's speech at the ECB
"The SNB-FRB-BIS High-Level Conference on Inflation Risk and Uncertainty" (2023) with Juan M. Londono and Beth Anne Wilson
FEDS Notes
This version: January, 2023
"Is Trend Inflation at Risk of Becoming Unanchored? The Role of Inflation Expectations" (2022) with Francesca Loria and David López-Salido
FEDS Notes
This version: March, 2022
Presentation video (from 1h16min)
"International Measures of Common Inflation" (2021) with Eli Nir and Flora Haberkorn
FEDS Notes
This version: November, 2021
Coverage: Governor Kugler's speech at the ECB
"Labor and technical progress: an analysis on the employment, income and qualification levels in the São Paulo industry" (2009) with Beatriz Selan and Sergio Kannebley Jr.
Revista Economia ANPEC. v. 10, p. 277-297.