Research

• "Back to the present: learning about the euro area through a now-casting model" (2023) with Thiago Ferreira, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno

International Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming)

This version: April, 2022

First draft: March, 2021

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1313 (Federal Reserve Board)

Replication codes

Now-casting the Euro Area GDP - Weekly updates

• "What is certain about uncertainty?" (2023) with Cisil Sarisoy, Juan M. Londono, Bo Sun, Deepa D. Datta, Thiago Ferreira, Olesya Grishchenko, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Francesca Loria, Sai Ma, Marius Rodriguez, Ilknur Zer, and John Rogers

Journal of Economic Literature, 61(2), 624-54.

First draft: July, 2020

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1294 (Federal Reserve Board), SSRN

• "Patent-based news shocks" (2022) with Marija Vukotić

Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(1), 51-66.

First draft: May, 2019

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1277 (Federal Reserve Board), Warwick Economics Research Paper # 1225

Online appendix, Replication codes

Patent-based news shock and patent series here!

Coverage: Economics Observatory

• "News and uncertainty shocks" (2021) with Ana Galvão

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 53(4): 779-811.

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1240 (Federal Reserve Board)

Replication codes

• "News shocks and the slope of the term structure of interest rates: Comment" (2017)

American Economic Review, 107(10): 3243-49.

Working paper version

Replication codes

• "Innovation during challenging times" with Marija Vukotić and Sarah Zubairy  (new paper!)

This version: October, 2023

First draft: March, 2023

• "Pandemic priors"  (new version!)

This version: March, 2023

First draft: June, 2022

MATLAB, Julia, and Python implementation

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1352 (Federal Reserve Board)

• "What happens in China does not stay in China" with William L. Barcelona, Jasper J. Hoek, and Eva Van Leemput  (new version!)

This version: November, 2022

First draft: December, 2020

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1360 (Federal Reserve Board)

Previously circulated as "Hidden in plain sight: China's contribution to the global business and financial cycle"

Coverage: The Economist, Hutchins Roundup (Brookings), Adam Tooze's Chartbook, Esprits Animaux, Rhodium Group

Data (credit impulse and alternative GDP level)

• "Forecast revisions as instruments for news shocks"  (new version!)

This version: April, 2022

First draft: May, 2018

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1341 (Federal Reserve Board)

• "Understanding growth-at-risk: a markov-switching approach" with Dario Caldara, Pablo Cuba-Borda, and Francesca Loria

This version: January, 2021

First draft: October, 2020

• "Dynamic effects of news shocks under uncertainty"

This version: July, 2020, First draft: November, 2017 - Job Market Paper

Uncertainty data here!

Gerald P. Dwyer prize for the best paper in finance presented by a graduate student at the 26th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2018)

• "Drivers of Post-pandemic Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies and Implications for the Outlook" (2023) with Musa Orak and Zina Saijid

FEDS Notes

This version: January, 2023

• "The SNB-FRB-BIS High-Level Conference on Inflation Risk and Uncertainty" (2023) with Juan M. Londono and Beth Anne Wilson

FEDS Notes

This version: January, 2023

• "Is Trend Inflation at Risk of Becoming Unanchored? The Role of Inflation Expectations" (2022) with Francesca Loria and David López-Salido

FEDS Notes

This version: March, 2022

Presentation video (from 1h16min)

• "International Measures of Common Inflation" (2021) with Eli Nir and Flora Haberkorn

FEDS Notes

This version: November, 2021

• "Labor and technical progress: an analysis on the employment, income and qualification levels in the São Paulo industry" (2009) with Beatriz Selan and Sergio Kannebley Jr. 

Revista Economia ANPEC. v. 10, p. 277-297.