Research

• "Back to the present: learning about the euro area through a now-casting model" (2023) with Thiago Ferreira, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno

International Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming)

This version: April, 2022

First draft: March, 2021

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1313 (Federal Reserve Board)

Replication codes

Now-casting the Euro Area GDP - Weekly updates

• "What is certain about uncertainty?" (2023) with Cisil Sarisoy, Juan M. Londono, Bo Sun, Deepa D. Datta, Thiago Ferreira, Olesya Grishchenko, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Francesca Loria, Sai Ma, Marius Rodriguez, Ilknur Zer, and John Rogers

Journal of Economic Literature, 61(2), 624-54.

First draft: July, 2020

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1294 (Federal Reserve Board), SSRN

• "Patent-based news shocks" (2022) with Marija Vukotić

Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(1), 51-66.

First draft: May, 2019

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1277 (Federal Reserve Board), Warwick Economics Research Paper # 1225

Online appendix, Replication codes

Patent-based news shock and patent series here!

Coverage: Economics Observatory

• "News and uncertainty shocks" (2021) with Ana Galvão

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 53(4): 779-811.

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1240 (Federal Reserve Board)

Replication codes

• "News shocks and the slope of the term structure of interest rates: Comment" (2017)

American Economic Review, 107(10): 3243-49.

Working paper version

Replication codes

• "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World" with Matteo Luciani and Michele Modugno  (new paper!)

Prepared for the Handbook of Macroeconomic Forecasting edited by Mike Clements and Ana Galvão

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1385 (Federal Reserve Board)

First draft: December, 2023

• "Innovation during challenging times" with Marija Vukotić and Sarah Zubairy  (new paper!)

This version: October, 2023

First draft: March, 2023

• "Pandemic priors"  (new version!)

This version: February, 2024

First draft: June, 2022

MATLAB, Julia, Python, and R implementation

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1352 (Federal Reserve Board)

Coverage: EViews blog

• "What happens in China does not stay in China" with William L. Barcelona, Jasper J. Hoek, and Eva Van Leemput 

This version: November, 2022

First draft: December, 2020

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1360 (Federal Reserve Board)

Previously circulated as "Hidden in plain sight: China's contribution to the global business and financial cycle"

Coverage: The Economist, Hutchins Roundup (Brookings), Adam Tooze's Chartbook, Esprits Animaux, Rhodium Group

Data (credit impulse and alternative GDP level)

• "Forecast revisions as instruments for news shocks"

This version: April, 2022

First draft: May, 2018

International Finance Discussion Paper # 1341 (Federal Reserve Board)

• "Understanding growth-at-risk: a markov-switching approach" with Dario Caldara, Pablo Cuba-Borda, and Francesca Loria

This version: January, 2021

First draft: October, 2020

• "Dynamic effects of news shocks under uncertainty"

This version: July, 2020

First draft: November, 2017 - Job Market Paper

Uncertainty data here!

Gerald P. Dwyer prize for the best paper in finance presented by a graduate student at the 26th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2018)

• "Drivers of Post-pandemic Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies and Implications for the Outlook" (2023) with Musa Orak and Zina Saijid

FEDS Notes

This version: January, 2023

• "The SNB-FRB-BIS High-Level Conference on Inflation Risk and Uncertainty" (2023) with Juan M. Londono and Beth Anne Wilson

FEDS Notes

This version: January, 2023

• "Is Trend Inflation at Risk of Becoming Unanchored? The Role of Inflation Expectations" (2022) with Francesca Loria and David López-Salido

FEDS Notes

This version: March, 2022

Presentation video (from 1h16min)

• "International Measures of Common Inflation" (2021) with Eli Nir and Flora Haberkorn

FEDS Notes

This version: November, 2021

• "Labor and technical progress: an analysis on the employment, income and qualification levels in the São Paulo industry" (2009) with Beatriz Selan and Sergio Kannebley Jr. 

Revista Economia ANPEC. v. 10, p. 277-297.