Research
Publications
"Back to the present: learning about the euro area through a now-casting model" with Thiago Ferreira, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno
International Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming)
This version: April, 2022
First draft: March, 2021
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1313 (Federal Reserve Board)
Now-casting the Euro Area GDP - Weekly updates
"What is certain about uncertainty?" with Cisil Sarisoy, Juan M. Londono, Bo Sun, Deepa D. Datta, Thiago Ferreira, Olesya Grishchenko, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Francesca Loria, Sai Ma, Marius Rodriguez, Ilknur Zer, and John Rogers
Journal of Economic Literature (forthcoming)
This version: August, 2021, First draft: July, 2020
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1294 (Federal Reserve Board), SSRN
"Patent-based news shocks" (2022) with Marija Vukotić
Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(1), 51-66.
First draft: May, 2019
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1277 (Federal Reserve Board), Warwick Economics Research Paper # 1225
Online appendix, Replication codes
Patent-based news shock and patent series here!
Coverage: Economics Observatory
"News and uncertainty shocks" (2021) with Ana Galvão
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 53(4): 779-811.
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1240 (Federal Reserve Board)
American Economic Review, 107(10): 3243-49.
Working papers
"Pandemic priors" (new version!)
This version: March, 2023
First draft: June, 2022
MATLAB, Julia, and Python implementation
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1352 (Federal Reserve Board)
"What happens in China does not stay in China" with William L. Barcelona, Jasper J. Hoek, and Eva Van Leemput (new version!)
This version: November, 2022
First draft: December, 2020
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1360 (Federal Reserve Board)
Previously circulated as "Hidden in plain sight: China's contribution to the global business and financial cycle"
Coverage: The Economist, Hutchins Roundup (Brookings), Adam Tooze's Chartbook, Esprits Animaux, Rhodium Group
Data (credit impulse and alternative GDP level)
"Forecast revisions as instruments for news shocks" (new version!)
This version: April, 2022
First draft: May, 2018
International Finance Discussion Paper # 1341 (Federal Reserve Board)
"Understanding growth-at-risk: a markov-switching approach" with Dario Caldara, Pablo Cuba-Borda, and Francesca Loria
This version: October, 2020
This version: July, 2020, First draft: November, 2017 - Job Market Paper
Uncertainty data here!
Gerald P. Dwyer prize for the best paper in finance presented by a graduate student at the 26th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2018)
Policy notes
"Drivers of Post-pandemic Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies and Implications for the Outlook" (2023) with Musa Orak and Zina Saijid
FEDS Notes
This version: January, 2023
"The SNB-FRB-BIS High-Level Conference on Inflation Risk and Uncertainty" (2023) with Juan M. Londono and Beth Anne Wilson
FEDS Notes
This version: January, 2023
"Is Trend Inflation at Risk of Becoming Unanchored? The Role of Inflation Expectations" (2022) with Francesca Loria and David López-Salido
FEDS Notes
This version: March, 2022
Presentation video (from 1h16min)
"International Measures of Common Inflation" (2021) with Eli Nir and Flora Haberkorn
FEDS Notes
This version: November, 2021
Publication (in Portuguese)
"Labor and technical progress: an analysis on the employment, income and qualification levels in the São Paulo industry" (2009) with Beatriz Selan and Sergio Kannebley Jr.
Revista Economia ANPEC. v. 10, p. 277-297.